Chelsea's remarkable journey from a 10th-place finish to Premier League champions in a single season is a story that captures the imagination of football enthusiasts. It raises intriguing questions about the potential for a repeat performance, especially with a new manager at the helm. In this article, we'll delve into the factors that could influence Chelsea's prospects and explore the fascinating dynamics at play.
A Tale of Tactical Switches and Unbeaten Runs
One of the key elements that contributed to Chelsea's title win under Antonio Conte was a tactical shift. After a disappointing start, Conte switched from a back four to a back three, resulting in an incredible 13-game winning streak. This strategic move transformed the team's fortunes and set them on a path to glory. The question now arises: can Xabi Alonso replicate this tactical success, especially given his experience with a three-at-the-back formation at Bayer Leverkusen?
The Challenge of Points Improvement
Improving upon Chelsea's previous season's performance by a substantial margin is no small feat. In fact, it's an unprecedented challenge in Premier League history. The bar has been set high, with Leicester's 40-point increase the previous season being the closest benchmark. However, the current landscape of the Premier League suggests that the title-winning threshold may have lowered, offering Chelsea a glimmer of hope.
Underlying Dominance and Finishing Woes
Despite their lowly finish, Chelsea's underlying statistics paint a different picture. They were the fourth-most dominant team in the Premier League based on expected goals, a metric that measures the quality of chances created and conceded. However, their finishing let them down, with a significant gap between their expected goals and actual goals scored. This anomaly, which occurred primarily during a five-game stretch under Liam Rosenior, raises questions about whether it was a blip or a deeper issue. Regardless, it's a problem that Chelsea are unlikely to face again this season.
The Benefits of No European Football
While it may seem counterintuitive, the absence of European football can provide a boost to a team's domestic performance. Chelsea, along with other so-called 'Big Six' clubs, have historically benefited from focusing solely on the Premier League. On average, teams in this situation have improved by five places and gained 16 points. This trend was evident in Conte's Chelsea and Liverpool's near-miss in 2013-14. With no distractions, Chelsea can dedicate their full attention to the Premier League, a luxury that could prove decisive.
Alonso's Track Record
Xabi Alonso's managerial career has already produced a remarkable turnaround at Bayer Leverkusen. Taking over a struggling team in the relegation zone, he guided them to a sixth-place finish and then an unbeaten Bundesliga title win in his first full season. This achievement matches the scale of Chelsea's transformation under Conte. With a proven track record of success, Alonso brings a unique set of skills and strategies to Chelsea, increasing the likelihood of another title challenge.
Conclusion
While the odds are stacked against Chelsea repeating their remarkable rise, the combination of a talented squad, a new manager with a proven track record, and the benefits of no European football make it an intriguing possibility. It's a story of tactical ingenuity, statistical anomalies, and the potential for a historic feat. As the season unfolds, we'll witness whether Chelsea can write another chapter in their remarkable journey.
